125962235.pdf

We examined the projection of permafrost distribution in Mongolia using RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the high emission scenario, an annual average near-surface temperature rapidly increases in Mongolia with high confidence. A similar trend of temperature is obtained at the depth of 3 m. A quantitative analysis of permafrost distribution using a high emission scenario suggests 87.5% of the current distribution of permafrost is vulnerable to climate change at the end of the century in Mongolia. The distribution of permafrost has a gradual reduction during the first half of the 21st century. The high emission scenario confirms distribution of permafrost is vulnerable to ongoing climate change and the distribution of permafrost will have major alterations in the second half of the 21st century in Mongolia